I love this time of year. The big one is upon us. You know, the Presidential election on Nov. 6, 2012.
Nov. 7, 2012 is when I cut my hair after President Obama’s defeat.
I know all the emotions attached to the president. Emotions do not win elections. Votes and electoral numbers do. So as I have written in the past few months and will going forward, I predict a Romney win.
Now I know, you wonder how I can predict that. It will not be on emotions. It will be on votes and electoral votes. As you all know it takes 270 to win the presidency. Some are already saying it narrows down to Ohio again. I do not think so. Romney could lose Ohio and still win the election. He just needs to win Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado. Sound easy? No. It is never easy.
Romney will win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania will be close. But as this election moves closer to Nov. 6 and the VP is chosen and the conventions are over I expect a Romney surge. If by chance it turns out to be a tie it does not favor the President.
Even more bad news for the President is that there will be an all time high number of governors elected. Try thirty-four. You do the math.
There are ninety-nine legislative houses in the 50 states. One state, Nebraske has only one legislative house while the other 49 have two. Look for two thirds of those houses to be controlled by Republicans after the November election.
All of this brings out the Republican/Conservative vote. Republicans will also win the United States Senate with 51 or 52 seats and the U.S. House of Representatives with a 235/200 margin.
Bye Bye Nancy Pelosi
As far as California goes there will not be the five to seven new house seats for the Liberals. No more than three. That will be a big defeat for Nancy Pelosi.
So as you can see the President is not looking like he will be re-elected. At present the polls are showing a very close race. Some favor President Obama, some favor Romney. All by no more than 2 points. This election is about the economy- unemployment and the debt and deficit. It is not about Romney and his tax returns or Obamacare.
Obamacare has been identified in a way which the Liberals do not like. One word says it all-TAX. Do I think this election will be close? Yes. Nasty? A great big yes. President Obama is going to have a money problem as this election gets into the final weeks. He will be bombarded in about ten states with no funds left to make come back ads.
I know you folks talk about the super PACS. They have less money than the unions. The unions have their own problems. Governor races, state upper and lower house races. They need wins in those situations to hold on to their power. They will not be interested like they have in the past of getting a Liberal President elected. They will be trying to save their own skin. So my prediction stands.
Maybe some of you Liberals can come up with some numbers that say I am wrong. Please no emotional hope and change comments. Put the numbers up and the state the reason why President Obama will win them.
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