In Order to Win Schwartzman and Donahue Need to Buck the Trend

Update 3 p.m.

There is no way of knowing how many of the 9,800 outstanding vote-by-mail ballots are from Benicia.  With that said, it is possible to make an educated guess about the numbers and how many votes Alan Schwartzman and Matt Donahue would need to come away winners. 

Schwartzman is currently 129 votes behind Mayor Elizabeth Patterson. About 13 percent of the vote-by-mail returns posted on election day were from Benicia.  If that trend continues about 1,275 ballots of the remaining vote-by-mail ballots will be from Benicia.  In order to make up the 129 vote deficit Schwartzman will need about 55 percent or 702 of those votes. 

Schwartzman got slightly more than 50 percent of the absentee vote so grabbing 55 percent of the outstanding vote is possible but it would not follow the trend so far.

For Donahue there is an even bigger number to overcome.  He trails Gary Wing by 162 votes and garnered about 24 percent of the absentee vote compared to Wing’s 26 percent. 

Asked about his chances of pulling off a come-from-behind victory Donahue said, “It’s technically possible but highly unlikely.”

The registrar’s office will work on the Veteran’s Day holiday this in order to get the count done in as timely a manner as possible.  Lindsey McWilliams, Assistant Registrar of Voters, predicted that the count will be completed and the number posted Friday afternoon.

Update 1 p.m.: 9,800 Vote By Mail Ballots Countywide Still to be Counted

Also, about 950 provisional ballots and hundreds of defective ballots need to be counted.

The total number of ballots yet to be counted in the Benicia election is  unknown according to Assistant Registrar of Voters Lindsey McWilliams.  There are about 9,800 vote-by-mail ballots still to be counted – about 4,900 turned in at the polls on election day and 4,900 received in the mail at the registrar’s office on election day- and counting those ballots won’t start until Thursday.

“We’re going to start verifying signatures this afternoon, as soon as we finish lunch,” said McWilliams Wednesday at noon.  “We can verify about 2,000 signatures an hour.   That means we’ll start counting on Thursday and we’ll finish counting the vote-by-mail ballots Friday.”

There is no way of telling how many of the vote-by-mail ballots are from Benicia.  On election day 799 of the ballots were turned in at Benicia polling stations but not all those were from Benicia voters.

Asked when the next update to the vote tallies would happen McWilliams said, “There will be no updates until we have counted all the vote-by-mail ballots.”

There are also between 900 and 1000 provisional ballots countywide that need to be counted and, according to McWilliams,  “several hundred ballots that are defective.”

A defective ballot is any ballot the voting machines can’t read.  Those ballots have to be duplicated and then counted.  McWilliams says it requires a two person team to duplicate the defective ballots and that it will take several days to finish the process and count the votes.

The provisional ballots are also time consuming.  McWilliams says it can take up to 30 minutes to verify each provisional ballot and assure that the voter turning it in is registered and isn’t trying to vote twice.  He says his staff will begin verifying the provisional ballots next week.

Update 10 a.m.: There Are Still Ballots to be Counted in Benicia Election

Benicia turnout is much higher than the county total in yesterday's election and will go higher as more ballots are counted.

There are 799 vote-by-mail ballots and 111 provisional ballots that were turned in at the polling places throughout Benicia yesterday.  Countywide there are nearly 5,900 ballots yet to be counted.

There are two races that could be affected by these numbers.  In the mayor's race, incumbent Elizabeth Patterson holds a 129 vote lead over challenger and current Vice-Mayor Alan Schwartzman and in the school board race Gary Wing holds a 162 vote lead over Matt Donahue.

The City Council election is over.  Even if third place candidate Dan Smithgot all 900 votes he still would fall short of catching Christina Strawbridge.  Incumbent Councilman Tom Campbell kept his seat on the City Council and as the highest vote getter in the council race, he will take Schwartzman's place as Vice-Mayor.

According to Ms. Lee at the registrar’s office, not all the ballots turned in at Benicia polls were from Benicia voters, and Benicia voters may have turned in their ballots at other polling stations in Solano County. 

Benicians did show up in high numbers to vote compared with the rest of the county.  The registrar of voters election page shows 21 percent of eligible voters cast ballots yesterday but in Benicia 34 percent showed up and that number will go up as the vote-by-mail ballots dropped off yesterday are verified and counted.